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Research · Frameworks & Method

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adcv_@adcv_·14d

What should DeFi rates really be? Probably not 12%

Adcv_ argues Tom Dunleavy's 12.55% DeFi lending yield overstates risk through double-counting independent risk premia that are already captured in expected loss, and using the wrong risk-free anchor. Using SOFR at 3.6% instead of the 10Y Treasury, the correct decomposition yields 3.95% for prime DeFi (Steakhouse USDC benchmark) and 7.1% for high-yield DeFi, implying Dunleavy's figure prices in a 7% expected loss rather than accurately reflecting current DeFi risk.

TD
Tom Dunleavy@dunleavy89·15d

What should DeFi Rates really be?

Tom argues the $292M KelpDAO exploit and subsequent $13B TVL drain exposed severe DeFi mispricing: deposits earning 5% on major protocols like Aave accept BB-rated pricing for technically worse-than-CCC risk. Using TradFi credit frameworks, DeFi's 1.5-2.0% forward probability of default with 90% loss given default requires a fair yield floor of 12.55-13%, not 5.5%, because exploits cascade in minutes rather than quarters and composability failures create unauditable contagion that deposits absorb without protocol failure.

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Kevin Simback 🍷@KSimback·23d

The AI Agent Moat Is Real, but Narrower Than You Think

Kevin examined AI agent investment opportunities and identified where moats actually exist. The sector's real defensibility lies not in engineering patterns—which open source reimplements in weeks—but in proprietary trajectory data from execution, integration depth with customer systems, and evaluation infrastructure. Companies like Harvey ($190M ARR), Sierra ($150M+ ARR), and Cursor ($2B ARR) compound advantages through data flywheels, while Meta's $2 billion Manus acquisition signaled that 147 trillion tokens of execution data across 80 million VM sessions justifies premium valuations where framework elegance and generic tooling offer no moat.

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