Kunal Doshi

Kunal argues prediction markets have become volatility playgrounds where short-duration 5min and 15min crypto markets now generate ~40% of Polymarket's daily fees despite comprising only 16% of volume, with professional bots capturing consistent 1.1%-1.6% margins while retail traders lose ~$500 on average per address. Kalshi's crypto share jumped from 9% to 46% since January, and Hyperliquid's upcoming 15min BTC markets threaten fee compression, making expansion into non-crypto volatile assets and better product execution critical for maintaining leadership.

Kunal argues Polymarket's shift into perpetual futures exposes limitations in its reliance on Polygon's architecture. Perps demand low-latency, deterministic execution and cancel priority that Polygon's hybrid offchain-onchain model cannot reliably guarantee, forcing market makers to widen spreads and reducing liquidity. To compete with systems like Hyperliquid's HyperCore, Polymarket would likely need to launch its own chain—capturing transaction and sequencing fees currently worth low single digits in revenue uplift, but increasingly valuable as perps unlock new revenue streams like liquidations.