Browse all takes

Bull thesis on Bittensor / TAO at ~$3B mcap. Frame: "TAO 2026 = ETH 2016 = BTC 2013."

Core mechanic: Bitcoin paid miners to produce hashes that secure the network but are otherwise worthless. Bittensor pays miners — data scientists, ML engineers, AI researchers — to produce useful AI work. Validators score outputs via Yuma Consensus; TAO flows to whoever produces the most valuable work. Network is organized into 128+ subnets, each focused on a specific task (trading signals, LLM training, computer vision, code generation, financial forecasting). Some subnets generating millions in revenue, with Intel and PwC partnerships.

Tokenomics mirror Bitcoin: 21M fixed supply, no pre-mine, no VC allocation. First halving Dec 14 2025. BTC price went 83x in the year after its first halving in 2012.

Smart-money signals: Barry Silbert / DCG launched Yuma Group dedicated to accelerating Bittensor. Grayscale filed Form S-1 to convert GTAO Trust into a spot ETF. Stillcore Capital (Mark Jeffrey, Jason Calacanis, Rob Greer) targeting $1T mcap by 2030, aiming to own 1% of all TAO. Unsupervised Capital projects $4,800 by Dec 2027 (19x), bull case $10,800 — and that's before Covenant-72B, Jensen mentioning Bittensor, and PwC's formal alliance.

Subnet-level conviction picks:

• Targon (SN4) — decentralized AWS for AI; Targon VM gives encryption + hardware-backed protection so hardware operators can't access data, weights, or workloads. Co-authored a paper with Intel in March 2026. Built by ex-OpenTensor founders (Robert Myers — among first 3 people ever in the Bittensor Discord; James Woodman ex-GSR).
• Vanta (SN8) — disrupts the $20B prop firm industry. Single eval, 100% profit split, fully on-chain verification. Already net profitable on revenue vs miner emissions. Hyperscaled is the Hyperliquid version.
• Chutes (SN64) — #1 open-source provider on OpenRouter, 9.1T tokens processed. Decentralized AWS with no CEO.
• RESI (SN46) — institutional-grade real estate intelligence. 98% accuracy remote appraisals on a $600T asset class running on broken legacy MLS systems. 1000+ appraisals + nationwide lender partnership in week one. Strategic investment from Stillcore.
• Affine (SN120) — built by Const himself (Bittensor co-founder, wrote the Yuma Consensus + subnet architecture). Continuous evaluations on open-source reasoning models, leverages Chutes for hosting.
• Score (SN44) — first subnet ever to partner with a Big Four firm. Manako product distributed by PwC France to retail, manufacturing, logistics, energy enterprise clients.
• Oro (SN15) — autonomous AI shopping agents. 45 Oro agents have outperformed GPT-5.4 on hard online shopping evals.

Frame: Bitcoin = money. Ethereum = apps. TAO = intelligence. The gap between what TAO has built and how it's currently priced is one of the most asymmetric opportunities in crypto.

Morpheus Research's 4-month investigation concludes Figure Technology is a $7.7 billion home equity lender masquerading as a blockchain innovator, with exaggerated or fabricated claims about blockchain-enabled advantages. The company's loan origination system doesn't use blockchain technology—it relies on third-party tools like Plaid and CoreLogic, contradicting repeated executive claims that loans are "native" to blockchain. Figure's blockchain projects including Figure Connect, Democratized Prime, and YLDS have either stalled or are internally propped up, while aggressive underwriting practices reminiscent of pre-2008 lending—full-draw requirements, lax title checks, automated valuations without appraisals—are driving delinquencies to 5.46% in 2025 versus 1.79% for Bank of America, alongside insider stock dumps totaling $120 million despite lock-up agreements.