Is HYPE still cheap?
Donovan argues HYPE at a $9 billion valuation looks expensive. A reverse DCF assuming 30% returns over four years requires $11.5 billion in revenues by 2030—implying 110% CAGR from the current $601 million annualized run-rate, growth rates with no historical precedent in exchange history. His bottom-up analysis suggests base case revenues of $4.7 billion by 2030, creating a $6.8 billion shortfall; only the bull case of $14 billion in revenues justifies today's price, but that requires DEXs capturing 60% of a vastly expanded perps market while Hyperliquid holds 45% share—assumptions pricing in most of the upside already.