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The street's best takes on crypto — without the timeline.

A curated feed of what serious analysts are saying about specific tokens, equities, and private companies. Updated continuously.

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Valuation

3 takes

All takes are our summaries. Tap View on Xfor the analyst's original words.

adcv_@adcv_·1d

What should DeFi rates really be? Probably not 12%

Adcv_ argues Tom Dunleavy's 12.55% DeFi lending yield overstates risk through double-counting independent risk premia that are already captured in expected loss, and using the wrong risk-free anchor. Using SOFR at 3.6% instead of the 10Y Treasury, the correct decomposition yields 3.95% for prime DeFi (Steakhouse USDC benchmark) and 7.1% for high-yield DeFi, implying Dunleavy's figure prices in a 7% expected loss rather than accurately reflecting current DeFi risk.

ValuationDeFi
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Alex
Alex@0xpampa·3d

The Shape of a Market: The Case for Kraken

Alex values Payward at $20B as fairly priced for today's exchange business (8-9x revenue on $2.2B adjusted revenue in 2025), with downside anchored by the crypto-exchange floor. The asymmetric upside lies in three catalysts: Bitnomial's CFTC-licensed clearing business (where switching costs are significant once institutional firms connect), xStocks tokenized equities (already $320M+ AUM with the Nasdaq partnership expected H1 2027), and banking products via the Fed Master Account and Wyoming charter. No competitor combines all four capabilities, and executing this stack could unlock substantially higher value.

Kraken (Payward)ValuationExchanges
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Tom Dunleavy@dunleavy89·3d

What should DeFi Rates really be?

Tom argues the $292M KelpDAO exploit and subsequent $13B TVL drain exposed severe DeFi mispricing: deposits earning 5% on major protocols like Aave accept BB-rated pricing for technically worse-than-CCC risk. Using TradFi credit frameworks, DeFi's 1.5-2.0% forward probability of default with 90% loss given default requires a fair yield floor of 12.55-13%, not 5.5%, because exploits cascade in minutes rather than quarters and composability failures create unauditable contagion that deposits absorb without protocol failure.

ValuationDeFi
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