The street's best takes on crypto — without the timeline.

All takes are our summaries. Tap View on Xfor the analyst's original words.

adcv_@adcv_·1d

What should DeFi rates really be? Probably not 12%

Adcv_ argues Tom Dunleavy's 12.55% DeFi lending yield overstates risk through double-counting independent risk premia that are already captured in expected loss, and using the wrong risk-free anchor. Using SOFR at 3.6% instead of the 10Y Treasury, the correct decomposition yields 3.95% for prime DeFi (Steakhouse USDC benchmark) and 7.1% for high-yield DeFi, implying Dunleavy's figure prices in a 7% expected loss rather than accurately reflecting current DeFi risk.

ValuationDeFi

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Tom Dunleavy@dunleavy89·3d

What should DeFi Rates really be?

Tom argues the $292M KelpDAO exploit and subsequent $13B TVL drain exposed severe DeFi mispricing: deposits earning 5% on major protocols like Aave accept BB-rated pricing for technically worse-than-CCC risk. Using TradFi credit frameworks, DeFi's 1.5-2.0% forward probability of default with 90% loss given default requires a fair yield floor of 12.55-13%, not 5.5%, because exploits cascade in minutes rather than quarters and composability failures create unauditable contagion that deposits absorb without protocol failure.

ValuationDeFi

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Tom Wan@tomwanhh·4d

Can Morpho/JupLend overtake Aave/Kamino? A history of DeFi lending on Ethereum and Solana

Historical pattern analysis of DeFi lending on Ethereum (Compound → Aave → Morpho) vs Solana (Solend → Kamino → JupLend). The one phase transition we can directly compare (Phase 1 → Phase 2) played out ~25% faster on Solana. Implication: the challenger moves are real, and Solana's compression suggests JupLend takes share from Kamino faster than Morpho takes from Aave.

$AAVE$JUPFundamentalDeFi

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Carlos@0xcarlosg·4d

Aave: Cracks in the Monolithic Thesis

On April 18, 2026, attackers minted 116.5K unbacked rsETH via a compromised LayerZero bridge and borrowed ~$193M from Aave V3. Carlos argues this exposes a structural weakness in Aave's monolithic pool architecture — any bad asset contaminates the whole pool. Complements Pratik Kala's tranching proposal; both are pointing at the same fundamental issue, from different angles.

$AAVEFundamentalDeFi

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Mesh@MeshClans·6d

Tokenization of RWA yields onchain might be the biggest opportunity that no one has noticed

The $140T global fixed-income market is moving onchain, and every major RWA issuer — Apollo ($938B AUM), BlackRock, Paxos, Strategy — converges on Pendle's PT/YT as the venue making institutional yields retail-accessible. Examples: Apollo ACRED 8.77%, Strategy STRC 11.50%, Paxos USDG 4.5%, Ethena USDe 8.5%. RWA on-chain hit $23.6B in March 2026 (+66% YTD); Pendle has settled $69.8B lifetime. Thesis: TradFi doesn't realize it needs this onchain bond market yet, and Pendle sits at the center.

$PENDLEFundamentalDeFi

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